Anna Hazare and the Jan Lokpal Bill against corruption

[James]

In the Canadian constitution, social services are in the domain of the provinces.  So the majority of government services outside of defence, diplomacy, passports, etc., are actually at the provincial level (education, health care, driver's licenses, child protective services, provincial police, etc., etc., all provincial) and so this institution oversees more being on the provincial level than it would on the national.  Perhaps India and Canada are different politically in that regard.  I understand that at the federal/national level, there are ombudsmen for individual departments, and not one central one.

Also, no, the Ombudsman is not a judicial court in Ontario.  His findings can be turned over to the police and court cases can be filed, though.  There is nothing preventing a level of gov't, though, from setting up a special tribunal, so I don't necessarily see anything wrong with the Lokpal having a special tribunal associated with it specifically to take the reports of Lokpal investigators for prosecution, provided all the normal checks and balances apply, and all cases can be appealed up to the Supreme Court, as usual.

I would agree with your criticism, Bollythis, if this institution doesn't report to Parliament.  That really is a fundamental requirement if it is to remain within the democratic framework.  I would imagine the constitution would bind parliamentarians into making this institution report to parliament, though (it would be a requirement here, both our countries are based on the same sort of system), and if not, then it could likely be challenged on constitutional grounds by the first people who the Lokpal investigates as having no jurisdiction.

By the way, if Wikipedia is anything to go by, these demands are nothing new.  There seems to be a history of requesting this office with the parliamentarians dragging their feet.

[BollyThis]

In India it looks like they (The requesters for the Ombudsman/Lokpal) don't seem to trust anyone for good reason (They do not trust the politicians, the police, the Judiciary. So they do not want any of them to have powers over them. They want an independent organization that is outiside the parliament with its own power to self regulate to be investigator, the power to adjudicate, and sentence.   A Politburo at the national level.

Lets see how where this goes.

[BollyThis]

Cong virtually rejects Hazare's demands

http://www.hindustantimes.com/Cong-virtually-rejects-Hazare-s-demands/H1-Article1-683986.aspx

[gabahd]

Stumbled upon this.  Any opinions?

At the Risk of Heresy: Why I am not Celebrating with Anna Hazare
April 9, 2011
by Shuddhabrata Sengupta

http://kafila.org/2011/04/09/at-the-risk-of-heresy-why-i-am-not-celebrating-with-anna-hazare/

[BollyThis]

Stumbled upon this.  Any opinions?

At the Risk of Heresy: Why I am not Celebrating with Anna Hazare
April 9, 2011
by Shuddhabrata Sengupta

http://kafila.org/2011/04/09/at-the-risk-of-heresy-why-i-am-not-celebrating-with-anna-hazare/

Yeah I read that article. The whole thing is going to be a disaster if its done at a national level. However, if its done at a state level like how Canada seems to be doing, it may not be such a bad idea.

Tamil Nadu is a corrupt state where this one family of the Karunandhi has taken over Tamil Nadu and deivided up the state among his family members.  His daughter is deep into the G2 spectrum scandal. She got a big payoff from that Raja dude. She will not be prosecuted.
No way. Karunanidi is the CM and a congress coalition/ally. An Ombudsman organization could investigate and make sure none of  that family ever runs for office again.

[James]

Is India serious about fighting corruption?

Is India serious about fighting corruption? Going by some striking data put together by the country's respected, independent watchdog PRS Legislative Research, it doesn't appear so.

India's government officials charged with corruption can be prosecuted only after an approval by the federal or state government. However, by simply sitting on requests from prosecuting agencies, governments can easily slow down prosecutions or make sure that the offenders are never prosecuted.

But are governments serious about prosecuting their own officers? Consider this.

    * The federal government has not responded to 236 requests to prosecute public servants on corruption-related charges till the end of 2010. The overwhelming majority of these requests -155 or 66% - were pending for more than three months.

    * State governments run by different parties have not fared much better. They have not responded to 84 requests till the end of 2010 of which 13, or 15% were pending for more than three months.

    * India's Central Vigilance Commission (CVC) is tasked with fighting corruption in the federal government. Between 2005 and 2009, only 6% of the cases in which the agency found corruption were sanctioned for prosecution by the government. The remaining 94% were let off with departmental penalties, some of them minor.

    * The powerful Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) is the main investigative agency used by the CVC to probe corruption and misuse of office by government officials. But till the end of 2010, 21% of its key jobs remained vacant, seriously hindering its working.

    * The criminal justice system is also failing in prosecuting officials charged with corruption. There were nearly 10,000 CBI cases pending in the courts till the end of 2010 - and 23% of these cases had been pending for more than 10 years.

    * As I reported earlier, whistleblowers are facing serious challenges. In 2004, the government empowered the CVC to act on complaints from whistleblowers. Between 2005 and 2009, the CVC received only 1731 complaints from whistleblowers, a paltry annual average of 346.

Is it any surprise then that an anti-corruption bill has been introduced eight times in the parliament since 1968 with no results?

The idea of setting up an Ombudsman type institution in India was first floated in 1963 during a parliamentary debate. Ideally, it would be an institution independent of the judiciary, executive and legislature and would be free to chose the investigation method and agency.

A total of 140 countries around the world have the office of an Ombudsman. Many believe India needs it most. Has its time finally arrived? The government agreed over the weekend to form a panel to draft a stronger law as per the demands of anti-corruption campaigners led by the redoubtable Anna Hazare, who broke a four-day fast over the issue. Watch this space.

[encore]

August 16 - the day after India celebrated its Independence - starts as a dark day for India.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/News-Feed/chunk-ht-ui-homepage-breakingstory/Anna-Hazare-Bedi-Kejriwal-arrested-police-foil-protest-plan/Article1-733774.aspx

Anna Hazare, Bedi, Kejriwal arrested; police foil protest plan
Agencies
New Delhi, August 16, 2011


People wave the national flag as they surround 73-year old anti-corruption crusader Anna Hazare......
Anna Hazare, Kiran Bedi and Arvind Kejriwal have been arrested. He was arrested from his residence at Mayur Vihar in New Delhi today under Section 65. He is being taken to Civil Lines. Hazare was supposed to begin his fast at Rajghat from 9am. Anna is being taken away in an Innova car by the Delhi Police toward Chhatrasal Stadium, reports say. Kiran Bedi was arrested from Raj Ghat. Anna has declared that he will begin his fast at 10 am.
Arvind Kejriwal and Anna Hazare being taken to Civil Lines police station.

Akhil Gogoi, core committee member said that Anna and Arvind were held by some IB officials near Supreme apartment lift in Mayur Vihar Phase-I. Gogoi said that a CD containing Anna Hazare's public speech will soon be released to the media.

Late Monday, 50 of Hazare's supporters were detained for gathering at the proposed JP Park venue of the protest for violating prohibitory orders, the police said.

A lokpal bill incorporating several suggestions by the Anna Camp is currently in Parliament but the activists said nothing less than a complete acceptance of their version is acceptable.

[encore]

Anna had advance knowledge of his arrest.  He has asked the people to jail bharo (fill the jails) in protest all over the country.

No matter how we feel about Anna's methods, I hope we call all agree that taking away his freedom of expression is not the correct course of action in a democracy.

Boldface is mine:

Police say no to protest, Anna faces arrest today
Posted: Tue Aug 16 2011, 02:22 hrs
New Delhi:

The Delhi Police today refused permission to Anna Hazare and his supporters to undertake an indefinite fast at Jai Prakash Narayan Park in Central Delhi, after they declined six of the 22 conditions laid down by the cops.

Sources in the government told The Indian Express that the Delhi Police has been asked to “take all steps necessary” to prevent anybody, including Hazare, from taking the law in their own hands. Prohibitory orders were issued under Section 144 around the J P Park to prevent large gatherings.

There were also clear indications that Hazare and anybody else who tried to break prohibitory orders would be arrested immediately. Hazare himself declared that he would go ahead with the fast even if it meant getting arrested.

He also asked his supporters to fill jails all over the country if he was arrested tomorrow. “I have come to understand that I will be refused permission. We will go there (J P Park). If I am arrested, I will continue my hunger strike in jail. If I am released, I will go back to the venue and this circle will continue,” he told reporters.

[omlick]

Here is the article from the NY Times:

August 16, 2011
New Delhi Police Arrest Leader of Anti-Corruption Protest and Hundreds of Others
By JIM YARDLEY
NEW DELHI — Seeking to pre-empt a mass demonstration and hunger strike against corruption, the police in New Delhi on Tuesday detained more than 1,200 protesters only hours after officers made an early morning arrest of the leader of the anti-corruption movement.

The arrest of the leader, Anna Hazare, was practically preordained after he vowed to carry out a hunger strike at a public park in New Delhi, despite local police denying him a demonstration permit. Mr. Hazare had planned to begin fasting on Tuesday, but the police took him and his aides into custody at 7:30 a.m., before he could depart for the park.

The arrests, along with the detention of protesters trying to gather at the demonstration site, immediately shook up Indian politics. Parliament adjourned for the day. Opposition political leaders assailed the national government for cracking down against peaceful protesters. Meanwhile, a top government official said Mr. Hazare’s arrest was a law-and-order issue and a justifiable response to his defiance of the police.

“They made it very clear they would defy,” said Home Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram, who estimated the number of detained protesters at between 1,200 and 1,300 by midday. Protest leaders estimated that nearly 3,000 people had been detained and called on people across the country to switch off their lights at 7 p.m. to mark “this dark day for our democracy.”

Protests were also under way Tuesday in other major Indian cities, including Mumbai, Chennai, Bangalore and Hyderabad, with large crowds gathering and shouting slogans against corruption.

At Jayaprakash Narayan Park, site of the planned demonstration in New Delhi, the police ringed the perimeter, while protesters trying to enter the park were detained and transported in buses to different locations serving as detention sites. As monsoon rains drizzled down, protesters shouted slogans and voiced outrage that Mr. Hazare had been taken away.

“Why have you arrested him?” P.K. Gupta, a local businessman, shouted at police officers. “You should arrest corrupt people! Why have you arrested a simple, honest man? The government is atrocious. God is watching! God will not save you, Delhi police!”

For weeks, a showdown has been brewing as Mr. Hazare and his allies have sought to mobilize a national movement to pressure India’s national leaders into creating an independent anti-corruption agency, known as a Lokpal. He gained national prominence in April, when he undertook a hunger strike for a Lokpal and unexpectedly attracted many thousands of mostly middle-class supporters around the country.

Startled by the upsurge of popular outrage, government officials persuaded Mr. Hazare to abandon his protest by inviting him and his aides to join a special committee to draft legislation for a Lokpal. Talks ensued for weeks and a Lokpal bill is now pending in Parliament. But Mr. Hazare and his followers denounced the legislation as too weak, and Mr. Hazare vowed to stage a new hunger strike this week to renew his pressure campaign.

The arrests and detentions Tuesday come as the government, mired in different scandals, has spent months on the defensive about corruption. Speaking Monday in a national address to commemorate Independence Day, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh dedicated nearly half his speech to corruption, expressing support for a strong Lokpal, even as he warned that no “magic wand” could sweep away the problem of corruption.

Mr. Singh said the government was introducing several bills in Parliament to combat corruption and asked that critics of the current form of the Lokpal legislation participate in the political process, rather than stage public demonstrations. “They should not resort to hunger strikes and fasts unto death,” he said.

With the Indian economy growing at roughly 8 percent a year, official corruption has become a widespread problem and a source of public disgust. Public confidence is low in the government’s ability to eradicate graft, which is why many people have embraced the idea of an independent Lokpal agency, beyond the controls of political parties, that is empowered to attack corruption.

Mr. Hazare’s supporters envision an organization with sweeping powers, including the right to investigate the prime minister and the judiciary, while the government’s legislation would shield the prime minister and the judiciary from such scrutiny as a precaution against frivolous complaints.

The likelihood of a Tuesday showdown became evident once Mr. Hazare applied for a police permit to stage an indefinite fast. The police responded with 22 conditions, six of which Mr. Hazare refused to accept, including a three-day limit to the hunger strike and a cap of no more than 5,000 protesters. Mr. Hazare’s allies declared these conditions to be violations of the constitutional right to protest and pledged to carry out the fast.

On Monday evening, hours after the prime minister had completed his address to the nation, Mr. Hazare went to the Rajghat, the cremation site of India’s founding father, Mohandas K. Gandhi, and spent two hours meditating as his supporters began to arrive. During a news conference later that night, Mr. Hazare declared that he would arrive at Jayaprakash Narayan Park on Tuesday morning to begin his fast, despite the police order.

But he apparently had anticipated his arrest. Soon after his morning detention, a video appeared on YouTube, apparently filmed on Monday night, in which Mr. Hazare called on millions of Indians to rise up in nonviolent protest against corruption. In the video, Mr. Hazare said other leaders would guide such protests and spoke in sweeping, dramatic tones.

“The second war of independence has started,” he declared.

Mr. Hazare elicits different reactions in India. His supporters regard him as a rare Gandhian, a simple, principled man in a new, materialistic age in India. His enemies accuse him and his allies of deliberately trying to undermine the government at the behest of opposition parties — accusations they stoutly deny. Yet many Indians sympathetic to Mr. Hazare’s cause are less enthusiastic about his method and worry that theatrical demonstrations and hunger strikes undermine democratic values.

Meanwhile, Mr. Chidambaram, the home minister, denied that the government was undermining democratic rights by detaining protesters. In June, the government was criticized for an early morning police crackdown against followers of another anti-corruption protester, the yoga guru Baba Ramdev.

“We are not prohibiting a peaceful democratic protest,” Mr. Chidambaram told reporters. He said the police had made every effort to find a “reasonable set of conditions under which the protest can take place.”

“Nowhere in the world is a protest allowed to take place without conditions,” he added.

Hari Kumar contributed reporting.



 
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[encore]

The police now want to release Anna Hazare.  The latest news is that he is refusing to come out of jail until the authorities give him permission to protest in Delhi.  I think this is a brilliant move.  He is giving the government little choice between being authoritarian and bending to his will.  In either case, the government loses.

In the eyes of the common indian, the government is a corrupt, infuriating, unshakable entity.  Here is a 74 old villager who is shaking its very foundation.  Very cool, very inspiring.  The clenched fist of corruption will be hard to pry open and those in power will do everything to keep the status quo.


Added:  An excellent op-ed from The Hindu:

Published: August 17, 2011 00:57 IST | Updated: August 17, 2011 01:08 IST

Corrupt, repressive and stupid

A corrupt government devoid of moral authority is ill equipped to deal rationally with legitimate public anger. By ordering the illegitimate detention of Anna Hazare before he began his fast in support of stronger anti-corruption provisions in the Lokpal Bill and the arrest of a large number of peaceful protesters in the national capital, the United Progressive Alliance government revealed its ugly, repressive face. No representative government in a democracy can deny citizens their fundamental right to dissent and peaceful protest. Insisting on unreasonable, inequitable, and suspiciously contrived conditions that everyone knows the protesters cannot accept is tantamount to denial of the democratic right. Instead of honestly dealing with the issues raised by successive corruption scandals, the UPA government chose to cover up. When that became unsustainable, it resorted to slurs and dirty tricks, and incrementally raised the level of repression to smother voices demanding accountability and corrective institutional measures. It is no wonder that from time to time such a government gets into panic mode, miscalculates, and commits acts that everyone outside the regime recognises as politically stupid.

Despite several opportunities to reach a consensus with Team Anna and other sections of civil society for the framing of an effective Lokpal Bill, the Manmohan Singh government attempted to push through a farce of a Bill. That it misread the national public mood was obvious. Anna Hazare might have given the cause a face, but the anti-corruption movement that is now in a rapid phase of expansion across India does not depend on one man or his team. The real force that is shaking the UPA government — which is widely perceived as the most corrupt in the history of independent India — is made up of hundreds of thousands of ordinary citizens who are fed up with a system they believe is opaque, corrupt, and driven by greed. In the words of A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, former President of India who has scrupulously kept himself above partisan politics, the recent events and findings have highlighted “the single biggest hindrance to India's growth — that is the corruption and degrading moral turpitude which is engulfing the nation like cancer.” What after all has made Team Anna the force it has become? It is the feeling among ordinary people across the land — a feeling strengthened by intense media coverage — that here is a rare opportunity to put in place a potent mechanism to end high-level corruption. If the UPA does not recognise the public anger against corruption, respect the ideals and values of democracy, and take steps to create a Lokpal that inspires confidence, there will be a political price to pay — perhaps well before the next general election.

[BollyThis]

Indians should follow the Egyptians and throw this single Feudal family from power that has ruled India for over 50 years.  Egypt had a single family for 30 years and they got thrown out. India has had this Feudals for 50 years and they are are not thrown out of the country. Shame!

[encore]

Anna Hazare and his team are demanding the unconditional right to protest.  Anna seems to be in no hurry to leave Tihar jail anytime soon.  Thousands have gathered outside the jail in support of his movement.  Tens of thousands have also gathered at India Gate in New Delhi and rallies are being held throughout the country.  Anna Hazare's movement has galvanized the opposition and united the right and the left.  The UPA government seems to be in a vacuum and is continuing to seriously misread the situation that it is in. They are pursuing the pathetic strategy of slandering Anna Hazare.

Just to remind you - the protests are in support of strong anti-corruption bill.  The civil society is unhappy with the watered down bill that the government has offered.


Here is a like to Reuter's live blog of the events:

http://blogs.reuters.com/india/2011/08/16/live-blog-anna-hazare-detained/


Back in 2007, Hazare spoke at a youth camp.  He spoke extemporaneously and from his heart.  The speech is entirely in hindi and gives you a measure of the man.  I hope it touches you as much as it touched me:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vJD6TzsmA0

[Darshana]

As always I am learning a lot form things Bollywhat members find and post about what is going on in India as so many have background knowledge and judgment from which I can learn

 - but -

PLEASE INCLUDE LINKS as well as statements of where you got these from!!!!!!! 

[pahar ka gulab]

Quite an interesting, unemotional take on the issue that I found posted by Atul Kulkarni on FB:

http://kafila.org/2011/04/09/at-the-risk-of-heresy-why-i-am-not-celebrating-with-anna-hazare/

.... it kind of sums  up the uneasiness that I had the whole time about this Anna Hazare business,.... the problem being that the call for drastic steps actually enforces undemocratic and completely uncontrollable institutions. And out of the really bad experience Europe had I always get a very foul taste in the mouth whenever somebody calls for strong leadership against anything,.... it almost always ends up really nasty! That's not the way to get good people on top,....

[encore]

.... it kind of sums  up the uneasiness that I had the whole time about this Anna Hazare business,.... the problem being that the call for drastic steps actually enforces undemocratic and completely uncontrollable institutions. And out of the really bad experience Europe had I always get a very foul taste in the mouth whenever somebody calls for strong leadership against anything,.... it almost always ends up really nasty! That's not the way to get good people on top,....

The fact is that we are not yet at a point where merits and demerits of the Jan Lokpal bill can be objectively discussed.  All of the recent events have been about the right to congregate and the right to free expression.  By denying Anna Hazare these basic rights, the government has shown that it is extremely fearful of any civil opposition to its own watered down version of the bill.

Although a Lokpal bill has been tabled repeatedly for decades, none has ever passed.  The only reason that we have even a watered down version now is due to the Anna-led movement back in April.  Left to its own device, this government (or any other government, for that matter) would once again let things roll as they always have.  This people-led movement is a game changer and is shaking the very foundation of the establishment.  (I am sure that the political leaders there wake up each morning and hope what is happening was just a bad dream).  There are tens of billions of dollars at stake here and a strong law will impact every policeman, every bureaucrat and every politician from the small frys to the fat cats.  They are going to resist this tooth and nail every inch of the way.

In the end, if the Indian people chose to take a sledgehammer to this problem, I can completely understand why.  The people there have been pushed to the limit.  I am hopeful that it will continue to be peaceful movement although I fear for the life of Anna Hazare.

[encore]

Anna Hazare's team and the Delhi Police have agreed to the Ramlilia grounds as the venue for the protest.  Anna is expected to start his dharna there tomorrow afternoon.  All of the bureaucratic hurdles (shenanigans) that the government recently used to thwart the movement have been magically removed.  I guess they learnt their lesson  - for now.

The Ramlila grounds can hold 25,000 people.  Look for amazing pictures once the movement moves to its new location.

Here is Chetan Baghat describing the movement in the Guardian:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/17/anna-hazare-arrest-inspired-indians

[melbguy]

I think there is mass support for anna's bill but gradually people are seeing the otherside too. I would recommend you guys to read the version 2.3 with a open mind. I personally dont support it. Imo it will just create another level of bureaucracy and this group of 10 can become a monster. Only person that can remove these 10 people during their 5 yr terms  would be the president. In an ideal world, yes if there are 10 v decent people can clean up the system but i dont think that would be the case in 5-10 yrs of this committee. I personally also dont like sadhvi rithambhara, rama sene etc joining the bandwagon . Lokpal is being sold as this magic pill that once it is done , corruption will go away. dont think that would happen.

also check these....


http://ibnlive.in.com/videos/176743/annas-protest-unjustified-nandan-nilekani.html

http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India-Circus/entry/why-anna-hazare-should-not-win-this-battle

[encore]

The government remains in full-on denial mode.  With each passing day, it further loses the people's respect and confidence.  This may, just may, bring down the government if the coalition partners bolt.  I hope it does.


For the first time in their 120 year existence, Mumbai dabbawallas strike to support Anna Hazare's movement.  

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/18/dabbawallas-strike-support-anna-hazare


Live feed from Ramlila grounds:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFjB6VXK034&feature=share


Why Anupam Kher is supporting Anna Hazare:

http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2011-08-18/mumbai/29899864_1_anupam-kher-anna-hazare-corruption


ADDED:

Wonderful article about the plague of everyday corruption by Jason Burke of the Guardian:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/19/corruption-india-anna-hazare

[James]

India urged to focus on economy, not activist Anna Hazare

The Indian government eased its latest political crisis, but while all eyes were on the circus in the streets of the capital, a problem that may in the end prove far greater lurked unaddressed in the background.

The Indian National Congress-led government has struck a deal that will see anti-corruption activist Anna Hazare leave prison Friday and begin a 15-day fast for a new anti-graft law. Street protests are expected to die down as a result.

But the issue once more dominated parliament, and consumed the energy of senior political figures Thursday at a critical time when, many in the Indian business community say, the economy ought to be the focus.

India has been somewhat protected from recent global economic gyrations because of the huge role domestic consumption plays in driving its growth. But recent events in the West have caused a slowdown of foreign-capital inflows, as nervous investors shun emerging markets.

And that, combined with persistent near-double-digit inflation and a series of interest-rate hikes, have Indian business leaders worried that growth will not hit the 8 to 9 per cent target that government envisioned for the year – and paralysis over the Hazare crisis, and other political issues, is killing the reform legislation that was their hope for economic salvation.

The current session of parliament was slated to pass a number of bills seen as critical to the health of the economy – including laws to streamline investment, land acquisition and foreign partnerships. Now it seems that few if any of these will make it through the house before this session ends on Sept. 8. The next session begins in November.

“What government needs to do … is fast-track some of the reforms which have been on the backburner,” said Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist in the Mumbai office of the analytics firm Crisil Ltd. Restrictions on foreign ownership were eased slightly last month, he noted, but that’s not nearly enough. “We need to see some action for land acquisition to smooth the process and make it more investor-friendly – we need to get the confidence back.”

Government is getting the same message from its own advisers. “The uncertainty arising from political developments has had a very negative impact on business confidence and investor outlook,” the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, a body of eminent economists, said in a recent forecast for government – and cut its growth forecast from 9 to 8.2 per cent.

Growth of 8.2 per cent, of course, sounds just fine to ailing Western economies, but growth of at least that level is needed to fund the government’s broad social-welfare agenda and continue the process of lifting millions of Indians out of the grinding poverty in which they live.

There is more than just the political paralysis to worry about. Events in the West are being watched with anxiety; the biggest fear is a withering of foreign-investment inflows to an economy hungry for capital for industrial and infrastructure expansion, as foreign institutional investors pull back funds from emerging markets.

“There has been a fair bit of selling from foreign institutions in the last two weeks – and sometimes it doesn’t even have to be huge amounts of net selling, just the absence of buying creates a slow down of activity and new investments,” said Madhav Bhatkuly, a fund manager with New Horizon Investments in Mumbai. “So we’re very much in the watch-this-space zone right now.”

The U.S. credit downgrade sparked the latest stock market turmoil, but it’s the slowing of the U.S. economy that is the biggest risk for India, as it dries up sources of both credit and trade. The European debt crisis doesn’t help either; the EU and U.S. together buy a third of India’s exports. “If advanced economies sink into recession again India’s growth will also suffer as it did in 2009, and this time the impact could be more prolonged,” Mr. Joshi said.

That said, domestic factors are the most critical. “Domestic consumption or private is about 60 per cent of GDP which is quite large – even in comparison to China it is very large – so that provides the buffer against global turbulence,” Mr. Joshi said.

Mr. Bhatkuly, however, warned of the impact on the closely watched growth figure: “Domestic consumption can carry India to 6 or 7 per cent GDP growth – anything above that is dependent on capital flows.”

Fears of a slowdown in India were eased slightly by robust industrial figures released by government this past week. June factory output grew at 8.8 per cent; capital good production is up 38 per cent and merchandise exports grew by 82 per cent in July, the highest rate since 1995.

That said, the normally rock-solid car sales figures were down 16 per cent in July – the first drop in nearly three years, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers; the drop is blamed on higher interest rates and fuel costs.

And it’s not just cars: high interest rates are quashing sales of all consumer goods, and most analysts predict government will raise rates yet again in September, the 12th hike in 16 months. The rate hikes are part of an ongoing but unsuccessful effort to reign in inflation that flicks perilously close to double digits (the rate was 9.4 per cent in June.) “Inflation is intolerably high and to cut it down to tolerable levels they will have to sacrifice some growth,” Mr. Joshi said.

The one upside of a recession in the West is that it would bring commodity and oil prices down; it is these that are driving inflation here. And with lending rates so high, the government has a fair bit of room to manoeuvre should it need to boost consumer spending.

“One would have to be stupid to be pessimistic over the long term,” Mr. Bhatkuly said. “India’s growth was never going to be in a straight line.”

[encore]

As Anna Hazare starts Day 10 of his hunger strike a few things have become very evident:

- The ruling class will not cede ground without a fight.  Billions of dollars are at stake and the corrupt system feeds both the babus (bureaucrats) as well as the elected leaders. A percentage of the small, everyday bribes are kicked ever higher up through a chain of bureaucrats and eventually up the political chain.  That money as well as the money from the mega scams are used to fund elections and purchase voting blocs.

- While almost every political party is part of the perverse system, the biggest scams have taken place under the Congress party.  Given the blatantly dishonest manner in which Congress has mishandled the Anna Hazare movement thus far, it has made itself the face of all that is wrong with the political class.  Their brand has been irrevocably tarnished and deservedly so.  They seem to be both blind and tone deaf with regards what is going on.

- The Anna Hazare movement cuts across regional, religious, class and caste lines like none other in recent memory.  It has left some of the intellectuals and dogmatic religious leaders dazed and confused.  Arundhati Roy has blasted the movement which is a good thing since her opinions, imo, have always been on the fringe.  The Imam of Delhi's biggest mosque has also come out against the movement and his call too has not been heeded.

Here is a wonderful first hand piece that is devoid of spin and discredits the whisper campaign against the movement:


http://www.firstpost.com/politics/scenes-from-ramlila-maidan-jaago-manmohan-wake-up-mr-pm-66781.html
 

[BollyThis]

When the congress Party/A single family the only political party family that has been in power for 90% of time who are going to be there into perpetuity has no incentive to change the status quo. After all,  they have gotten away blaming religious Hindus for all the misery and failures in India.

Why should they change now?

[BollyThis]

This is a half decent article on what is going on. He does make the point that needs to be made, but the author often tries to undermine it by other arguments. But I am selectively posting what I think is right on. IMO, the educated and the middle class are being marginalized by the mob organized by the extremely wealthy uppercaste congressie lefties pretending to speak for the underclass.

http://blogs.hindustantimes.com/medium-term/2011/08/26/movement-of-the-educated/

Quote:

Moreover, this is not your typical Indian political movement hoping to garner votes from the illiterate or the uneducated. Instead, this is a movement of the educated. While Anna Hazare may boast about his lack of formal education, all of the people around him are well educated and highly qualified. They are lawyers, former judges, former civil servants, police officers and academics. The language they speak is very different from the language of the average politician.

As I have often pointed out, this is a movement that gains its strength from the frustrations of the educated middle class. As the middle class has grown in size, strength and influence, it has tired of the failures of conventional politics and it has nearly given up on traditional politicians. The educated middle class believes that India is a potential first world country run by third world politicians with a fourth rate sense of integrity.

Over the last few months, we have seen this kind of parallel politics develop outside of the parliamentary system. Anna Hazare’s followers are not people who put their faith in the organised electorate. For them, the crowd at Ramlila Maiden is representative of the views of India. Nor do they have much faith in parliamentary debates. They think that more sense is spoken in discussions in television studios than is ever spoken at political rallies or even, in Parliament.

I can understand their frustrations. And all of us must applaud Anna Hazare’s sincerity.

[encore]

I have been watching this movement with a great deal of interest.  I've drawn some conclusions which may not come as a surprise to some of you:

1. PM Singh is quite simply a puppet.  He is surrounded by various cabals all doing the best to pull his strings.  He himself is a honest man but a completely ineffective manager.  The chief string puller is Sonia Gandhi but she has been absent due to an illness.

2. The opposition is completely ineffective.  Advani should have been put out to pasture decades ago.  It too is bogged down in infighting and a lack of ideology since communalism does not sell like it once used to.

3. The Jan Lokpal is not a done deal by any stretch of the imagination.  The political parties - bot the ones in power as well as in opposition - know what they have to lose if the law is passed and will do their best from making that happen.

4. Watch for more drama in the coming days.  Anna has a good team (Bedi, Kejriwal etc) but had made the mistake of having TV godmen in the mix.  He should keep them away.

5. This is out an out a people's movement - not a middle class movement, not an educated peoples movement but a people movement.  The only ones not on board seem to be the intellectuals and the ruling class - they are the ones that are misreading it completely.

6. There are many positive to what is happening - people are united, are demanding positive change, doing so peacefully and expressing love for their country at the same time.  Its them versus the politicians and bureaucrats for whom change will be hard to swallow:

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/in-anna-backyard-in-lokpal-season-a-fearful-babu-swallows-his-bribe/837890/

In Anna backyard, in Lokpal season, a fearful babu swallows his bribe
Chandan Haygunde Posted online: Sat Aug 27 2011, 03:10 hrs
Pune : In Anna Hazare’s backyard, official energy is currently focused on one anti-corruption struggle: how to get Rs 2,000 out of a revenue official, who allegedly swallowed the money when caught red-handed accepting bribe on Thursday afternoon.
Strong laxatives given at the Sassoon Hospital here today evening didn’t help retrieve the two notes of Rs 1,000 denomination reportedly lodged firmly inside Satish Shelke. A talathi posted at Narayangaon in Pune district, he had reportedly demanded Rs 2,000 from a farmer to provide him some documents.

“We need the currency notes as evidence. We hope that pieces of the notes come out due to the laxatives,” said Deputy Superintendent Satish Patil of ACB, Pune.

ACB officials had first taken Shelke to a local hospital for endoscopy, which reportedly confirmed the presence of the money. When an X-ray showed that currency notes had moved down inside the intestines, he was brought to Sassoon Hospital.

A farmer of Wadgaon Sahani village, Dhananjay Tukaram Warhadi, had purchased a piece of farm land a few days ago and applied at the talathi office for documents. Shelke holds additional charge of talathi for the village. When Warhadi approached Shelke for the documents, the official allegedly demanded Rs 2,500. The sum was brought down to Rs 2,000 after some haggling.

Warhadi lodged a complaint against Shelke at the ACB Pune office.

The ACB officer said they had the “endoscopy certificate” as evidence of the bribe, but “we also wanted the currency notes as recovery of bribe money is an important part of our routine procedure”. “He is being given dysentry medicines at Sassoon. Doctors said a lot of time has passed since he swallowed the notes, so these would not come out intact,” Patil added.

The notes, if recovered, would be sent for chemical tests. Officials are hoping to get “lucky” and get the number on the currency notes.

Added:

Meet the awesome Kiran Bedi - one of Anna's closest aides.  In Hindi:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJPw_a8R8QY

 

[James]

Anna Hazare triumphantly breaks his fast and upends India’s political landscape

For the nearly two weeks that Anna Hazare staged his hunger strike, the question hanging over India had been, “When would it end?” After Mr. Hazare triumphantly broke his fast Sunday, a different question arose: “What now?”

It applies not just to the fate of the remarkable popular anti-corruption protest movement that coalesced around Mr. Hazare but also to the political status quo in India. The Hazare movement exposed a populist rage toward India’s political class and a lack of public confidence in the efficacy of India’s democratic institutions, if not a lack of confidence in Indian democracy.

Mr. Hazare, 74, a long-time social activist who lost more than 15 pounds during a 13-day fast, is now an exalted figure in much of India. When he lifted a cup of coconut water and honey to his lips on Sunday morning, aided by two young girls, the moment was broadcast live across the nation. Thousands of supporters cheered at Ramlila Maidan, the public ground in New Delhi that has served as his fasting site.

He gulped the juice for a moment, and no doubt it tasted sweet. He and his advisers, known as Team Anna, had triumphed in a standoff against India’s political establishment after Parliament on Saturday capitulated to his key demand for creating an independent anti-corruption agency, known as a Lokpal.

“This is a moment of glory for our country,” Mr. Hazare told supporters Sunday morning, praising them for remaining peaceful throughout nearly two weeks of rallies, marches and demonstrations. “This movement has created a faith that the country can be rid of corruption and we can go ahead with implementing laws and the Constitution.”

India’s political leaders emerged from the past two weeks far less exalted, especially the governing Indian National Congress, which seemed outmanoeuvred and uncertain throughout the crisis. For months, leaders of the Congress Party had failed to effectively tackle different corruption scandals, creating an impression that the party lacked the will or the interest to address the issue.

When Mr. Hazare staged his hunger strike, the public outpouring of support seemed to throw Congress Party leaders off balance, and they never quite recovered. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh made a dramatic appeal in Parliament for Mr. Hazare to end his strike – yet was rebuffed. Rahul Gandhi, the Congress Party’s presumed prime minister-in-waiting, made a rare parliamentary speech in which he rejected the notion that a Lokpal was a cure-all for corruption. Two days later, his party folded to Mr. Hazare’s demands.

For Mr. Gandhi, the Hazare crisis interrupted what was widely assumed to be his own coming-out moment as the new leader of the Congress Party. His mother, Sonia Gandhi, the party’s president, has been recuperating in the United States from surgery. Mr. Gandhi left her bedside in the United States to return to celebrate India’s Aug. 15 Independence Day, and presumably to begin taking a more public posture in Congress Party affairs.

Instead, Mr. Hazare upended the political landscape, and Mr. Gandhi disappeared for days before his speech in Parliament.

“This could have been an opportunity for him to assert his leadership,” said Pratap Bhanu Mehta, president of the Center for Policy Research, a group in New Delhi. “Instead, it does raise questions about how much leadership he has shown.”

Yet the Congress Party can probably be grateful that the public seems disgusted with the political establishment as a whole. Leaders of the main opposition party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, or the BJP, provided some notable oratory during parliamentary debates but hesitated until the end on whether and how to embrace Mr. Hazare’s movement, which has disquieted some.

Muslims and lower-caste Hindus felt excluded and raised concerns about possible ties between the Hazare movement and right-wing Hindu groups. Many intellectuals also accused Mr. Hazare and his advisers of trying to hijack India’s parliamentary processes by insisting that his hunger strike would end only if lawmakers agreed to approve his bill.

But in a media-saturated political culture, Mr. Hazare presented an irresistible figure: A simple man in a Gandhian cap whose hunger strike unexpectedly tapped into widespread public disenchantment over corruption, large and small. He drew support from common people but also from middle-class professionals and college students, the demographic groups often dismissed as politically apathetic in India. College students marched through New Delhi or visited Ramlila Maidan, posing for photographs while waving Indian flags.

“This movement has convinced the youth of this country that they are active agents of change,” said Varun Gandhi, a BJP lawmaker in Parliament, during a speech on Saturday. He added: “A churning is taking place. We could say it is a silent revolution, except it is not so silent anymore.”