will the skewed male/female ratios in Aisa lead to extreme nationalism?

[albatross]

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3377

The Geopolitics of Sexual Frustration
By Martin Walker
   
Page 1 of 1
March/April 2006
Asia has too many boys. They can’t find wives, but they just might find extreme nationalism instead. It’s a dangerous imbalance for a region already on edge.

The lost boys of Prof. Albert Macovski are upon us. Twenty years ago, the ultrasound scanning machine came into widespread use in Asia. The invention of Macovski, a Stanford University researcher, the device quickly gave pregnant women a cheap and readily available means to determine the sex of their unborn children. The results, by the million, are now coming to maturity in Bangladesh, China, India, and Taiwan. By choosing to give birth to males—and to abort females—millions of Asian parents have propelled the region into an extraordinary experiment in the social effects of gender imbalance.

Back in 1990, Nobel Prize-winning Indian economist Amartya Sen was one of the first to call attention to the phenomenon of an estimated 100 million “missing women” in Asia. Nearly everywhere else, women outnumber men, in Europe by 7 percent, and in North America by 3.4 percent. Concern now is shifting to the boys for whom these missing females might have provided mates as they reach the age that Shakespeare described as nothing but stealing and fighting and “getting of wenches with child.”

[Dil Deewana]

Is this really new? My friend in India told me the trend of discriminatory abortions is decreasing. What is the ratio now really. Let's see ... CIA World Factbook says:

India, sex ratio (2005 est.):
0: 1.05 male/female
0-15: 1.06 male/female
15-64: 1.07 male/female
>65: 1.02 male/female
total: 1.06 male/female

my friend seems to be right!

World:
0: 1.06 male/female
0-15: 1.06 male/female
15-64: 1.03 male/female
>65: 0.79 male/female
total: 1.01 male/female

USA:
0: 1.05 male/female
0-15: 1.05 male/female
15-64: 1.00 male/female
>65: 0.72 male/female
total: 0.92 male/female

The difference seems miniscule to me. In India this theoretically still amounts to 23 million males between 15 and 64 without a match.

One thought is: it will finally make there guys over there appreciate the women. If market rules apply, the price of dowry will decrease and eventually the husband's families will have to pay to the brides'. Time for revenge girls!

[Roj Blake]

As an alternative to the doom and gloom violent nationalism scenario, the terrible situation of gender imbalance and discrimination against girls, which will hopefully be rectified, could also have the silver lining of contributing to more acceptance of male homosexuality as it becomes clear that some of the extra men are not extra if that is taken into account.  Then that would also help increase acceptance over time, of female homosexuality as well. 

[wannabe]

As an alternative to the doom and gloom violent nationalism scenario, the terrible situation of gender imbalance and discrimination against girls, which will hopefully be rectified, could also have the silver lining of contributing to more acceptance of male homosexuality as it becomes clear that some of the extra men are not extra if that is taken into account.  Then that would also help increase acceptance over time, of female homosexuality as well. 

I don't quite know what you mean by "the terrible gender discrimination", Type 40, except to caution you not to accept everything you read (or see on TV) as proven fact.

That aside, though, I don't understand why you would want the kind of "accepatance" of homosexuality that you envision.  If it is seen as something men indulge in only because there are no available women, then heterosexuality is still being defined as the norm, and homosexuality as deviant behavior.  While statistically that may be true at all times and places, it is the judgemental attitudes proceeding from that statistical fact that has led to the discriminatory and worse attitudes about homosexuals.  Your projection almost seems to me to be verging on the idea that homosexuality is something that is "chosen", and that can be "cured".  Surely that is not what you intended?

[albatross]

  Your projection almost seems to me to be verging on the idea that homosexuality is something that is "chosen", and that can be "cured".  Surely that is not what you intended?

in many cases, that is the case.

[cissyboo]

The problem with the CIA Factbook data is that it looks at the population figures as a whole.  A more valid analysis would include a brakdown by state, since what are the chances that a rural village boy from Punjab (with one of the lowest female to male ratios <118 m to 100 f in 1999> is going to marry a girl from Kerala ( highest male to female ratio <106 to 100>)?  Just remember, a "good" statistician can make the numbers say what they want them to (within certain limits)*.  Not that I think that the Fact Book is lying, it's just that many of these societies don't have the mobility that we in the US, Canada, UK, and Australia have.  I lived in four states and 7 different locations before graduating from high school (and we weren't a military family).  I, a girl who had spent most of her life in Pennsylvania, married a man from Missouri in California.  Since I've enjoyed the military life, I've added a good dozen locations lived in to my list in the past 10 years.  So, in this country, if West Virginia had a shortage of females, and Pennsylvania didn't, the men could just hop on I-70 and go to PA.  I don't think that would happen in India or China (without family connections).  This is not meant to imply any backwardness in either India or China....
Here is an interesting look at the concept, presented at a seminar in India, by an individual going for a Masters in Population Science:
Understanding Sex Ratio at Birth in India
It's a pdf file, and is interesting to look at.

Interesting to note, that though many agencies think that this skewed gender ratio is particulary bad in China, the CIA World Factbook data doesn't look that bad:
Sex ratio:
   Definition Field Listing
at birth: 1.12 male(s)/female
under 15 years: 1.13 male(s)/female
15-64 years: 1.06 male(s)/female
65 years and over: 0.91 male(s)/female
total population: 1.06 male(s)/female (2005 est.)

* I worked with statistics in my last several jobs before I returned to university-it's quite easy to manipulate the available data to present a brighter view than truly exists*
/diatribe over

[Dil Deewana]

A more valid analysis would include a brakdown by state since what are the chances that a rural village boy from Punjab (with one of the lowest female to male ratios <118 m to 100 f in 1999> is going to marry a girl from Kerala ( highest [female to male] ratio <106 to 100>)?

Good point. However, your 1999 census is also old, and you can see from the Factbook data of 2005 that the effect is washed out. They are back to a normal 105:100 rate again (which is normal, since XY sperms have a slightly higher chance of getting up faster, but boys are weaker in health so that normally the ratio gets to 1:1 by end of childhood.)

Just remember, a "good" statistician can make the numbers say what they want them to (within certain limits)*.

Oh please, no, don't spoil your good ideas with this folklore. It's good to discuss different interpretations, but it's not about statisticians wanting to "make the numbers say" something. We clearly see that in India those numbers the overall effect of gender imbalance wash out in the more recent births. This is a good thing. The regional imbalances is certainly still interesting.

it's just that many of these societies don't have the mobility that we in the US, Canada, UK, and Australia have.

Yes and no. There is a lot of urbanization happening. Hundreds of thousands of people arriving in Mumbai every day from all over the country. Then there is trafficing in women from Bangla Desh and Nepal some for precisely that purpose of catering to the gender imbalanced males.

Interesting to note, that though many agencies think that this skewed gender ratio is particulary bad in China, the CIA World Factbook data doesn't look that bad:
Sex ratio:
   Definition Field Listing
at birth: 1.12 male(s)/female
under 15 years: 1.13 male(s)/female
15-64 years: 1.06 male(s)/female
65 years and over: 0.91 male(s)/female
total population: 1.06 male(s)/female (2005 est.)

Why do you say, not that bad? This is very bad indeed! Just compare that with India! It's probably worse now than it ever was in India. It might go down a tad bit now, but it's not as clear as in India. So, if anything is bad then it is in China.

[NaijaChiqa]

They could always go to Chechnya.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4610396.stm

[cissyboo]

It seems from what I can gather that the last official census in india was conducted in 2001.  This is the link to the official government site with the pop breakdown by state:Census of India
The results used in the study posted in my previous response where from National Family Health Surveys, since the census is a decennial thing. 

Oh please, no, don't spoil your good ideas with this folklore. It's good to discuss different interpretations, but it's not about statisticians wanting to "make the numbers say" something.

But this kind of data skewing isn't folklore.  It happens every election season in the States, and every time a survey goes out. It's very common in fact.  We were actually warned about this is all my stats classes-make sure you ask all the right questions, not just the questions for the info you want. 
And China, well, since the estimates in the FactBook are for 2005, at 112 males to 100 females, it is good news for them, since the official national census in 2002 had the ratio at just under 117 males to every 100 females (116.86) Info here,Shanghai Star
So the numbers are improving.
As to the "importation" of women, that would affect the numbers as a total as well., since these women would not figure into the birth data ratios, having been born outside the country.
As to urbanization, Dehli has one of the lowest ratios in India (as per 2001 census) at 121 to 100.  This may be a result of unmarried men looking for work, and returning home to marry (if they marry at all).  In Mumbai it was 111 to 100.  So cities have a a higher male female ratio.  And by mobility, I wasn't really addressing the urban issue, but more along the lines of moving from one state to the next (not neccessarily from one urban center to another, or from the rural areas to an urban center)

[chandranc]

They could always go to Chechnya.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4610396.stm

math wiz, we are not worthy.

(I'll explain that..at 1.06, the number of "surplus" men in the 1 billion population is about 25 million.

chechnya's population is about 1 million (m+f))

maybe you meant nepal too.(pop 27 Mn)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fraternal_polyandry

[NaijaChiqa]

They could always go to Chechnya.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4610396.stm

math wiz, we are not worthy.

(I'll explain that..at 1.06, the number of "surplus" men in the 1 billion population is about 25 million.

chechnya's population is about 1 million (m+f))

maybe you meant nepal too.(pop 27 Mn)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fraternal_polyandry

lol, it was a joke.

[chandranc]

I know it was just that i had this vision of 25 million partner deficient men from india scouring the countryside in chechnya for women...

pretty funny visual...

[los angeles]

As an alternative to the doom and gloom violent nationalism scenario, the terrible situation of gender imbalance and discrimination against girls, which will hopefully be rectified, could also have the silver lining of contributing to more acceptance of male homosexuality as it becomes clear that some of the extra men are not extra if that is taken into account. Then that would also help increase acceptance over time, of female homosexuality as well.

That's an interesting point and I totally think all sexual orientations should be accepted across the board, but the gender imbalance seems like it would still be out of wack even taking these basic facts into account. A certain percentage of both the male and female population is going to be gay in every community, obviously, so that doesn't even enter the equation anymore then, right? I would assume that having a greater number of males--a sizable segment--is still going to have a slightly negative affect on all members of that community (both gay and straight.)